PDA

View Full Version : Michigan and Florida Leave Democrats in a State


Polly
03-07-2008, 08:33 AM
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2008/03/06/AR2008030604071.html?hpid=topnews

By Dan Balz
Washington Post Staff Writer
Friday, March 7, 2008; Page A01

As Sens. Hillary Rodham Clinton and Barack Obama competed through more than 40 contests over the past two months, Michigan and Florida remained on the sidelines, barred from participating in the Democratic presidential nomination process because they violated party rules. Now, with neither candidate likely to win enough delegates to capture the nomination, the question is whether the two states will end up deciding the race by holding do-over contests this spring.

Clinton's victories on Tuesday have put renewed pressure on the Democratic National Committee to resolve a months-long dispute over whether the Michigan and Florida delegations will be seated at the national convention in Denver in August. Political leaders in the two states, whose decisions to schedule primaries in January in violation of the rules led to their disbarment, are under similar pressure to find a way out of the stalemate.

Elected officials from Michigan and Florida have called on the national committee to relent, arguing that to do otherwise means disenfranchising several million voters from two battleground states. DNC Chairman Howard Dean has been equally firm in arguing that changing the rules could split the party and undermine confidence in the entire nominating process.

The stakes are huge. Florida and Michigan would have had 366 delegates between them. If Clinton or Obama were to score sizable wins in revotes, the states could have a major impact on the delegate margin between the candidates. Obama now has a lead of 140 pledged delegates.

Clinton won both disputed primaries, and she has called for the delegations to be seated. Clinton officials estimate that she would add about 180 pledged delegates to her total if the delegates were awarded on the basis of her vote percentages. Because Obama was not on the Michigan ballot, there is no way to estimate how many he would receive.

Obama campaign officials have insisted just as vociferously that, unless the DNC finds a solution, neither delegation should be seated. To simply seat the delegates, they argue, would amount to changing the rules midstream. Allies of Obama have quietly floated the idea of allowing the delegations to be seated, but with the delegates allocated evenly between the candidates.

Regardless of those public statements, both campaigns are open to new, DNC-sanctioned contests. But what they want most is a quick resolution to end the uncertainty. "We can't have this hanging over the nomination for another 60 days," said Obama campaign manager David Plouffe. "Whatever the resolution is, we hope that it is soon..."

Jo
03-07-2008, 10:08 AM
The DNC didn't disenfranchise the voters of those states. The state legislatures did when they voted to move the primaries knowing what the penalty would be for doing so. I don't have a problem with a do over. I would like those states to count but I want them to count fairly.

Brooke
03-07-2008, 10:23 AM
I have to agree with that Jo.

Lori
03-07-2008, 10:39 AM
The DNC didn't disenfranchise the voters of those states. The state legislatures did when they voted to move the primaries knowing what the penalty would be for doing so. I don't have a problem with a do over. I would like those states to count but I want them to count fairly.

ITA. If the DNC didn't sanction the states, I think electoral chaos would have been the result. States would feel like they could hold their primaries whenever they wanted.

The problem with a do-over, as I understand it, is that, while the primaries shouldn't have been held, they were, and under state law they were held legally. So it technically may be considered disenfranchisement to throw out the result and hold new elections. Not having the delegates' votes count is one thing and not disenfranchisement, just sanctions by the DNC, but actually saying the votes don't count and so we're doing them over is different. I don't necessarily agree with that, but it seems like it may be how things are going to work legally.

So what will probably happen is that caucuses will be held rather than redoing the primaries. I know MI doesn't have the money to redo the primary, anyway. The caucuses will be sort of on top of or alongside the primary rather than replacing them, if that makes sense.

Personally, I think primaries are a much better system than caucuses, and I really don't think you can determine which candidate will actually win an election through a caucus, since we obviously don't choose our President through caucuses, and so I wish we were able to just redo the primary, but it looks like both legally and economically that just isn't realistic.

In the end, I think MI and FL really screwed over the Democratic Party. Florida will definitely be very important in the election, and Michigan may well be, and I don't think we are going to get an accurate idea of who actual voters will vote for in their private voting booths by having caucuses.

Jeri
03-07-2008, 11:53 AM
The other problem doesn't MI have an open primary? If so, I think it's important that there's someway to exclude democrats and independants who crossed over and voted for Republican candidates (and, of course, Republicans who voted for Republican candidates) from a future caucuas/primary.

In any case, I think it's one big cluster f***. I would resign from the Democratic Party if they seated the delegates without a "do over," but there are a lot of problems with the "do over" concept - not the least of which is that FL and MI jumped their primaries up in an attempt to be more influential in the choosing of the candidates. The party sanctioned them for this by saing their delegates wouldn't count. If they have a "do over," in this particular election cycle, they will be elevated to the level of importance they were trying to attain by jumping their primaries in the first place.